By Boreal Family Office

Cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin chief among them—have dazzled investors with tales of overnight millionaires and a future unshackled from government control. On paper, the numbers look seductive: sky-high returns, revolutionary technology, and an asset class supposedly immune to inflation and institutional meddling.

*S&P 500 total return VS Bitcoin total return rebased to 1 in the past 10 years (from YCharts).*

But numbers alone don’t tell the whole story. For families stewarding wealth across generations, the deeper question isn’t whether Bitcoin can generate high returns—it’s whether it aligns with a sound long-term investment policy and prudent risk management. And that’s where the conversation becomes more nuanced.

Let’s look at what lies beneath.

1. Volatility: Impressive Returns, Unforgiving Swings

Crypto advocates often romanticize volatility as the price of innovation—volatility, they say, is what gives Bitcoin its “asymmetric upside.” But this narrative ignores that too much volatility is a red flag.

Let’s talk numbers.

Annualized from the past 10 years (from YCharts).

Asset Annualized Return Annualized Volatility Sharpe Ratio (Rf = 2%)

S&P 500 13.0% 18.3% 0.60

Bitcoin (BTC) 83.3% 68.6% 1.19

Bitcoin’s historical return of 83.3% annually outpaces traditional asset classes like the S&P 500. Even its Sharpe ratio (1.19) appears attractive relative to equities (0.60). But this performance comes at a steep price: volatility.

In the past decade, Bitcoin has crashed more than 80% on three separate occasions. Not corrected—crashed[1]. These weren’t the product of financial crises or global recessions. They were triggered by a tweet, an exchange hack, or speculative exhaustion. By comparison, the S&P 500’s worst single-day decline in the last 30 years was during a once-in-a-century pandemic.

Bitcoin has also shown a lack of consistent data[2] with traditional inflation hedges like gold or commodities[3]. In some years, it soars during inflation fears; in others, it collapses. It often behaves more like a high-growth tech stock than a store of value, with performance driven as much by narrative momentum as by fundamentals.

Consider this: if an equity portfolio suffered a 30% drawdown in a week, most CIOs would be fired. In crypto? It’s shrugged off as “just how the market works.”

For most investors—especially those with defined financial goals and intergenerational mandates—such instability is a serious concern. Volatility isn’t inherently disqualifying, but it demands context and caution.

2. Custody Risk: Innovation Without a Safety Net

The decentralized structure of cryptocurrency puts security and control in the hands of the investor. But with that control comes vulnerability. Lose your password or private key, and your assets may be unrecoverable. An estimated 4 million Bitcoins—worth over $550 billion USD at the time of writing this article—are lost forever[4].

Traditional custodianship infrastructure simply doesn’t exist in the same way for crypto assets. Clients must evaluate whether they—and their heirs—are prepared for the operational risks involved in self-custody or whether third-party solutions provide sufficient safeguards.

3. Long-Tail Technological Risk

Bitcoin’s security relies on current cryptographic methods, but the development of quantum computing could upend this foundation. Though timelines remain speculative, the potential for cryptographic obsolescence introduces a long-tail risk that investors must account for.

While developers are exploring quantum-resistant technologies, crypto’s evolution is still in its early stages. Families investing for decades—not just quarters—should keep a watchful eye on the technological trajectory.

4. Digital Dependency and Infrastructure Fragility

Bitcoin is often compared to digital gold. But unlike gold, Bitcoin has no physical form and relies entirely on the internet and power infrastructure. A major cyberattack, blackout, or disruption of global connectivity could paralyze access to the asset entirely.

This fragility is more than theoretical. As geopolitical risks rise and digital infrastructure becomes a battleground, assets that rely exclusively on uninterrupted access may face vulnerabilities that traditional assets do not.

5. Regulatory Flux

Cryptocurrencies operate in a dynamic legal environment. Some governments treat them as securities, others as commodities, and still others have banned them outright. Regulatory whiplash can materially affect pricing, liquidity, and investor access.

While the maturation of crypto regulation may ultimately benefit the ecosystem, current uncertainty makes it difficult to forecast how these assets will be taxed, classified, or traded in the years ahead. However, regulation is the very thing its core users fear most. That contradiction remains unresolved.

6. The Intrinsic Value Problem

Unlike stocks, which represent ownership in productive businesses, or bonds, which provide income streams, Bitcoin offers no cash flows, no claims on assets, and no industrial use. Its value is derived solely from supply scarcity and investor belief.

That doesn’t make it worthless—but it does make it harder to anchor. For fiduciaries and policy-driven investors, this raises important questions about where and how to classify crypto within an asset allocation framework.

Conclusion: Use the Edges, Not the Core

Bitcoin’s performance over the past decade has been impressive. But performance alone does not justify position size—especially in portfolios tasked with long-term stewardship, intergenerational transfer, and capital preservation.

Nevertheless, we do believe there is room for clients to hold an extremely small exposure as a speculative sleeve or a hedge against fiat debasement. But such exposure must be framed within a broader Investment Policy Statement, subject to regular review, appropriate risk controls, and clear governance structures.

Crypto, like any emerging asset class, deserves attention. But attention should not be confused with conviction, nor novelty with necessity.

At Boreal Family Office, we understand the nuances and opportunities, but we advocate for disciplined, policy-driven investing. That means asking not just “Can this grow?” but also “Does this fit?” With an Investment Policy Statement in place and strong governance guiding allocation decisions, families can explore innovation—without compromising their foundations.

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-biggest-bitcoin-crashes-history-180038282.html

[2] https://www.cfainstitute.org/sites/default/files/-/media/documents/article/industry-research/crypto-beyond-the-hype.pdf

[3] https://www.cfainstitute.org/sites/default/files/-/media/documents/article/industry-research/crypto-beyond-the-hype.pdf

[4] https://fortune.com/crypto/2017/11/25/lost-bitcoins/

加密货币纸面上很美——但这就是它只能在边角占位的原因

Boreal 家族办公室出品

比特币等加密货币以“造富神话”与“去中心化未来”的叙事，让许多投资者为之着迷。乍一看，数据确实令人心动：超高回报、颠覆技术、以及对抗通胀与机构操控的承诺。

但对于传承几代财富的家庭而言，更深层的问题不是“比特币能否赚钱”，而是“它是否适合纳入一个长期稳健的投资政策中”。

我们来看看表面之下的真相。

1. 波动性：高回报的代价是高起伏

很多加密货币支持者将波动美化为“创新的代价”，认为这是比特币实现“非对称回报”的必经之路。但过度波动恰恰是风险的标志。

还是那组数据：

资产类别年化回报率年化波动率 Sharpe比率（Rf=2%）

S&P 500 13.0% 18.3% 0.60

比特币 83.3% 68.6% 1.19

过去十年间，比特币的年化回报确实远超传统资产，但这也伴随着极端的下跌——比特币曾三次暴跌超过80%，而且并非因为经济危机，而是因推文、交易所被盗或炒作消退。

相比之下，标普500过去30年最严重的单日下跌，发生在百年一遇的大流行病期间。

更严重的是，比特币与通胀对冲工具（如黄金或大宗商品）的关联性数据并不稳定。有时通胀来临它飙升，有时却崩盘，行为更像高成长科技股而非“价值储藏”。

对大多数投资者而言——尤其是有代际传承目标的——如此不稳定性，是不能忽视的风险。

2. 托管风险：创新但无安全网

加密货币的“去中心化”意味着投资者自我负责资产的安全。但这也意味着，一旦遗失密钥或密码，资产或将永远无法找回。

据估计，已有超过400万个比特币永远消失，价值超过5500亿美元。

传统意义上的托管服务在加密世界并不健全。投资者必须评估自己（及其继承人）是否有能力应对这种操作风险，或是否需要寻找更安全的第三方托管方案。

3. 长尾技术风险：量子计算的黑天鹅

比特币依赖现有的加密技术维持安全性。但如果未来量子计算打破这些算法，其根基将面临挑战。

尽管现阶段预测仍属猜测，但对于以“几十年”为时间单位来管理财富的家庭而言，不能忽视这类潜在的黑天鹅事件。

4. 基础设施脆弱性：完全依赖数字环境

比特币常被称为“数字黄金”，但它不像黄金那样有实体形态。断电、断网或重大网络攻击都有可能让加密资产瞬间“不可达”。

在地缘政治动荡加剧、数字基础设施日益被武器化的当下，这种依赖构成了新型风险。

5. 监管不断变化

各国对加密资产的监管标准尚未统一——有些视其为证券，有些当作商品，甚至有些直接取缔。监管变化对价格、流动性和投资者准入都会造成实质影响。

虽然未来监管成熟可能有利于生态系统的发展，但目前的不确定性让投资者难以规划其税务、分类或交易路径。而讽刺的是，许多加密拥趸最害怕的，就是“监管本身”。

6. 内在价值之谜

比特币不像股票那样代表对企业的所有权，也不像债券那样产生稳定现金流，更没有工业用途。它的价值，完全来自“稀缺性”与“信仰”。

这并不意味着它毫无价值，但对于受信义义务驱动的投资者而言，缺乏锚点的资产配置，是一个大问题。

总结：边缘配置，而非核心配置

比特币过去十年的表现令人瞩目，但高表现不代表可以大比例配置，尤其是在需要保值、传承和风险控制的家族资产配置中。

我们认为：适当的比例（极小），可以作为一种投机仓位或对法币贬值的对冲。但前提是，必须纳入整体的《投资政策声明》中，设置清晰的治理框架、风险控制机制，并定期审查。

加密资产，值得关注，但关注不等于信仰，新奇不等于必要。

在Boreal家族办公室，我们理解加密资产的机会与风险，但我们更强调纪律性和策略性。真正值得问的，不是“它是否能增长”，而是“它是否适合我们”。

不要把波动误当策略，更不要把人气误当价值。

因为，加密世界最大的风险，往往不是眼前的，而是我们选择忽视的。

本文版权归属Boreal Family Office 所有，未经授权不得转载。旨在分享讨论关于金融理财方面的一般信息，具体案例请联系专业人士。

Bitcoin Looks Good on Paper—That’s Why It Belongs in the Margins